"MAKONI FACES MAMMOTH TASK" by Garikai Chimuka
The welcome entry of Dr Makoni into the political fray has generated intense mixed reactions. To some it has generated extraordinary excitement whereas to others it has meant skepticism. I personally believe that Dr Makoni faces a mammoth task if the Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn project is to succeed. Politics is
a game of strategy, structures and timing and Dr Makoni can still win it if he can craft the formula right but at the same time he can be buried for good if he miscalculates his move. Like what Obama always say, a struggle against vested interests will not be easy .It will need a lot of ingenuity and several options and alternatives to build and sustain the momentum. It is in this context that I honestly believe that Makoni faces a tough task. Will he be equal to the task? What strategies can he employ to victory?
One of the greatest failures of the current opposition has been to come up with a single strategy to campaign in both the urban and rural areas.Dr Makoni can avoid it by coming with the following strategies
In the urban areas, the constituencies can be divided into the low and high density surburbs.It will be relatively easy for Dr Makoni to win the hearts of people in the low density suburbs since they are a propertied class who are more likely to favor an orderly transition as compared to an uncertain transition if Tsvangirai is to win given that Makoni seem to have some support within the security structure which Tsvangirai does not have. The majority of captains of industry who are likely to support Makoni also reside in these areas. What is necessary is for the Makoni team to field credible candidates who are electable. The major campaign strategy will be small group meetings, lobbying influential individuals through their clubs etc and even establishing a call centre where volunteers can use the phone to reach out to the electrorate.The message should be to encourage the voters to go in their thousands and vote
In the high density suburbs, a lot of work needs to be done. Firstly, building structures to each and every street in the ghettos. There is also need for party visibility by printing T/shirts and other paraphernalia showing the party symbol so that people may be aware of the symbol. After forming the core structure, there is need to mobilize a massive rally, say at Zimbabwe grounds so that Dr Makoni quash the rumors' that have been talked by his detractors who are saying he is an agent of ZANU PF.The first major rally must be a psychological game of numbers. Massive organization is needed. Its success or failure will set the tone for the whole campaign. A massive rally will create momentum and win all the skeptics to Dr Makoni's side. He can also take advantage of the rally to tell the urbanites to send the message of Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn to the rural areas which is very difficult to penetrate. He can cap it all by also making impromptu door to door campaigns or walkabouts in the high density areas. In short there is need for a blitz in the urban high density areas. There is need for a permanent presence by activists until election time that should encourage people to vote.
In the rural areas, it will be where the decisive battle will be fought. The first stage where this battle will be won or lost is the selection of candidates. Unlike in urban areas where the candidate do not matter per se since people vote for parties of the cult of their leaders, in the rural areas it's the reverse. This is one of the blunders that the opposition has been making before because the rural folk wants an MP they can relate to .Hence there is need to select well known people who already has goodwill in the community.Prof Moyo's victory in Tholotsho in 2005 shows the importance of this point. Moyo quickly realized that he needed a political base and started doing some developmental things that endeared him to the people. There are so many well meaning citizens in the rural areas that have been extending their generosity in these areas and they must be identified, persuaded and registered. If it is late to field them as candidates, then they can be part of the campaign team.
Once the candidates and credible teams to campaign in specific areas are identified, the campaign must roll into gear. From the beginning, they must use people in the area and underground methods to campaign like door to door one on one because early rallies will result in ZANU PF employing violence and intimidating the people. In areas where the notorious ZANU PF militias are strong, it may be important to infiltrate them and finally recruit them. A campaign blitz with open distribution of T/shirts, party regalia etc must only be implemented in the final weeks of the campaign where it will be late for the ZANU PF intimidation machinery to respond. Hence those who are still in ZANU PF who back Makoni must only come in the open in rural areas in the final week of the campaign.
Another urgent strategy in the rural areas is to clandestinely recruit village heads and headman who haven't benefited much from ZANU PF patronage. It's only the chiefs who have benefited and hence the village heads in particular are ready for harvesting. These will be decisive for the rural vote.
To conclude, the campaign strategies will never be cast in stone. What is needed is ambushing the regime and at the same time knowing their strategies in advance for when the hunted know how the hunter hunts, then the hunting is over.
Garikai Chimuka, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
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